When the Pittsburgh Steelers were 7-4, it was hard to imagine them missing the playoffs. A big part of that was their next two games.

It looked like once the Steelers beat the Arizona Cardinals and New England Patriots at home, they’d be 9-4 and a near-lock to make the playoffs if they avoided losing out. We all know what happened though. The Steelers lost to the Cardinals and Patriots, who are 4-20 against the rest of the NFL this season. Instead of being 9-4 and cruising toward the postseason, they’re 7-6 and in a lot of trouble.

The Steelers face what looks like an AFC wild-card elimination game in Week 15. They play the Indianapolis Colts, one of six 7-6 teams in the wild-card race. If the Steelers lose to the Colts, they’d drop the head-to-head tiebreaker to one of the teams in the playoff race. The bigger problem is Pittsburgh’s upcoming schedule.

Here is how Frank Schwab thinks the NFL playoff picture will shake out as we enter Week 15. (Henry Russell/Yahoo Sports)
Here is how Frank Schwab thinks the NFL playoff picture will shake out as we enter Week 15. (Henry Russell/Yahoo Sports)
The Steelers finish with four tough games. After playing at the Colts, they host the 7-6 Cincinnati Bengals, play at a talented but slumping 6-7 Seattle Seahawks team and finish at the 10-3 Baltimore Ravens. If we figure 10 wins is necessary for a wild-card spot, a loss to the Colts means the Steelers would have to win out. Against that schedule, that seems very unlikely.

Another problem is the Steelers themselves. They aren’t playing well. The offense is broken. Pittsburgh fired offensive coordinator Matt Canada but many of the same issues persist. Mitchell Trubisky took over at quarterback for an injured Kenny Pickett last week and struggled so badly Steelers fans were chanting for Mason Rudolph in the first half.

It’s all stacking up against the Steelers. Two inexplicable losses put them in a bad spot. That puts them in a position of having to pull off an upset or two, probably starting with a game against the Colts. Indianapolis looked bad in a loss to the Bengals on Sunday but are a solid team that finds ways to win. They will have the same urgency as the Steelers in what should feel like a playoff game.

The Steelers are shockingly in a practical must-win situation on Sunday. They have themselves to blame.

Here are the Week 15 games that will have the biggest impact on the playoff picture:

Minnesota Vikings at Cincinnati Bengals
A battle between two 7-6 team trying to overcome losing their starting quarterback to a season-ending injury. Lately, the Bengals are doing a better job of that. Jake Browning has been a revelation over a two-game winning streak as he replaces Joe Burrow. The Bengals went from looking like they’d fade away at 5-6 to a resurgent team that looks capable of maybe even winning a playoff game. The Vikings offense is struggling bad and they made a change with Nick Mullens named the Week 15 starting quarterback, but they did get a 3-0 win at the Las Vegas Raiders on Sunday. The NFC wild-card race isn’t as strong as the AFC, but the Vikings don’t want to drop any further back to the pack.

Denver Broncos at Detroit Lions
The Broncos are one game behind the Chiefs in the AFC West, but they’re still mostly a wild-card contender rather than a real threat to win the division. A Week 1 loss to the Raiders puts the Broncos in a bad spot for AFC West tiebreakers against the Chiefs. Still, they’re a player in the wild-card race, thanks in part to a soft remaining schedule after Detroit (vs. Patriots, vs. Chargers, at Raiders). The Lions should still win the NFC North but they haven’t looked good lately. A loss Sunday might start to get people wondering if they might screw up their first division title since 1993.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Green Bay Packers
There is a three-way tie atop the NFC South between the Buccaneers, Saints and Falcons, all of whom are 6-7. The Buccaneers seem to have the toughest remaining road, including games against the Packers and Jaguars the next two weeks. The Packers are back in must-win mode after an upset loss to the New York Giants on Monday night. They’re still in good shape for a wild-card spot due to their weak schedule the rest of the way, but losing at home to the Bucs isn’t a good idea.

Dallas Cowboys at Buffalo Bills
The Bills are still in desperation mode, even with a win at Kansas City in Week 14. They’re one the six 7-6 AFC teams fighting for what looks like two wild-card spots. And the Bills still have a tough schedule remaining. A win over the 10-3 Cowboys would be great, but Dallas is one of the NFL’s hottest teams and they need to keep winning too. Their most realistic path to winning the NFC East is winning out and hoping the Eagles lose once against a soft remaining schedule. A loss to the Bills would be a big blow in the common games tiebreaker with the Eagles. Both teams need a win for different reasons.

Philadelphia Eagles at Seattle Seahawks
The Seahawks aren’t dead at 6-7. Their final three games are at Tennessee, vs. Pittsburgh and at Arizona. All of them are winnable. Maybe if they do win those games, 9-8 would be enough to make the playoffs. But an upset win would put them in a much better place. The Eagles face the Giants twice and the Cardinals after a tricky game at Seattle. If the Eagles win Monday night, they’ll be an even bigger favorite to win the NFC East.