San Francisco 49ers head coach Kyle Shanahan watches play against the Kansas City Chiefs during the first half of the NFL Super Bowl 58 football game Sunday, Feb. 11, 2024, in Las Vegas. (AP Photo/George Walker IV)
Analysis: By getting the ball first in overtime, 49ers coach Kyle Shanahan blew it. Or did he?
Las Vegas: When the coin landed on tails, Kyle Shanahan was suddenly faced with a decision unlike any in football history. In Super Bowl 58’s overtime, the San Francisco 49ers would control the sequence of possessions and establish a standard for enforcing the NFL’s new overtime regulations. With the Super Bowl on the line, what had previously been a given became a matter of new discussion.
Shanahan made the decision to receive in the first overtime game since the NFL modified the rules to guarantee possession for both teams in the postseason. This decision has given rise to a debate that will continue throughout the off-season. The Chiefs answered with a touchdown after the 49ers drove for a field goal. The Chiefs rejoiced. Shanahan had to ask himself if this was the right decision.
Experts in NFL analytics agree that the one thing that is certain is that a clear decision is lacking. The choice should be determined by the specifics of the game because the probability margins are small enough. Despite the 49ers’ defeat, Shanahan made a reasonable decision that ultimately proved to be unwise from an analytical perspective.
One idea dominated Shanahan’s decision-making process: “We just wanted the ball third,” he stated. The 49ers would have the strong advantage of winning the game with a score if the Chiefs and 49ers concluded their possessions with the same outcome. Shanahan essentially created the opportunity for the 49ers to have an additional possession.
“We went through all the analytics and spoke with those guys, and we just thought it would be better,” Shanahan said, adding that none of them had much experience with it. We knew we had to hold them to at least a field goal after we scored that field goal. And if we did, we believed that was when it was in our control.
Andy Reid, the head coach of the Chiefs, informed the referee on the opposing sideline that he would have kicked off if the Chiefs had won the toss. Based on the work of Chiefs statistical analysis coordinator Mike Frazier, Reid had reached that conclusion. The Chiefs thought that the advantage of a hypothetical third possession was outweighed by the certainty of the second possession and knowing how many points would be needed.
The two NFL’s top teams’ analytics departments had reached different conclusions. Reid checked with Patrick Mahomes at the last minute to make sure he still approved of kicking off in the event that the Chiefs won the toss, indicating how close the call was.
Reid stated, “It could go either way.” “However, it does one thing: it gives you a chance to see what needs to be done.”
“Getting the ball third” actually gives the opposition some advantages in real life. The Chiefs would never punt and would always use four downs if necessary if the 49ers scored. The opposing quarterback, Patrick Mahomes, presents a significant defensive challenge. With a fourth and 1 at their own 34-yard line, the Chiefs were faced. They might have punted on the first possession of overtime if they had been faced with that down and distance. The Chiefs needed a first down to survive, so Mahomes’ zone-read keeper worked.
