ESPN REPORT: Another Mega Star Commits To Dallas Mavericks.
With the New Orleans Pelicans leading the Mavericks by one game and the other three teams in the division at least 8.5 games apart, the Southwest Division is a two-team competition. With seven victories in a row over the last ten games, both the Pelicans and the Mavericks have cause for hope heading into the season’s final 27 games. At -185, the Pelicans are the clear favorite to win the division, but considering their roster changes and state of health, the Mavericks offer more realistic upside.
All five of the Pelicans’ starting players were available for at least 41 games during the first 55 games of the season, and they all maintained consistency in their positions. Luka Doncic and Derrick Jones Jr., who each made 47 starts, were the only players on the Mavericks to start more than 35 games. The team’s second All-Star, Kyrie Irving, missed 22 games due to a variety of injuries. Furthermore, Jones—who is billed at 6-foot-5 and 210 pounds—played a lot of power forward instead of his usual wing position during his playing career.
With its starting five healthy heading into the All-Star Break, the Mavericks have a new and improved starting lineup compared to the one they had in the first half of the season, thanks to their trade deadline transactions. Daniel Gafford and P.J. Washington were two big guys that the Mavericks acquired at the deadline. Going forward, Dallas’ starting center and power forward will be Gafford and Washington. Dereck Lively II, the rookie who started at center before the All-Star break, has missed seven of the last eight games due to injury, but he is still healthy and ready to contribute significantly going forward.
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All things considered, the Mavericks have managed to stay up with the Pelicans despite suffering more injuries and having to play small ball much of the time due to a lack of players. The Mavericks are healthier and have a more evenly distributed roster coming out of the break, which strengthens their defensive and rebounding units to help Doncic, Irving, and Tim Hardaway Jr. with their offensive production. With their current six-game winning streak, which ties them for the longest in the NBA, the Mavericks are favorites to win the division. They should be the favorites in my opinion, but they are still really good value in this slot machine because you can still obtain them for plus money.
Sixth Man of the Year to go to Tim Hardaway Jr. (+200)
Hardaway trails the overwhelming favorite Malik Monk (-115) in the odds to earn 6th Man of the Year, but he has considerable lead over Norman Powell (+600) and Caris LeVert (+2200). When I conducted my most recent awards check-in around a month ago, Hardaway was the clear favorite to win this award. However, Monk has surpassed him with a scorching February (20.4 PPG, 52.1 FG% in eight games), while Hardaway was in a slump (10.6 PPG, 34.2 FG% in seven games).
Hardaway still has a higher scoring average (17.3 PPG) than Monk (15.1 PPG) before the All-Star Break. Along with playing more minutes (29.8 MPG compared to 25.8 MPG for Monk), Hardaway has established himself as the Mavericks’ third offensive cog, with only Irving and Doncic averaging double digits in more than three games. In contrast, Monk is one of six Kings players averaging double figures and leads Keegan Murray by just 0.3 points per game for the team’s third scoring spot. Another benefit in Hardaway’s case would be if the Mavericks win the division. The Los Angeles Clippers lead the Monk’s Kings by 5.5 games and they are third in their division. The player with longer odds and greater juice is the one with betting value in a race this close.
MVP to be won by Luka Doncic (700)
Prior to Joel Embiid’s tragic injury last month, I contended that Doncic had a strong MVP case because of his unique statistical footprint and the possibility that the Mavericks would overtake the Pelicans and win their division. Doncic’s case is even more compelling now. With 34.3 PPG, he currently leads the NBA in scoring. He has also averaged 8.8 RPG and accelerated his career-high assist pace to 9.5 APG. Doncic’s current season is exceptional since no player in NBA history has ever averaged 34 points, nine assists, and eight rebounds for the whole duration of the season.
There isn’t a single contender standing out from the rest in the MVP contest. At -120, Nikola Jokic is the clear favorite, but his biggest advantage over Doncic—team success—would be weakened given that the Denver Nuggets are now just third in their division and fourth in the West. The only other player with lower odds than Doncic is Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (+225), whose success with the Oklahoma City Thunder (who are second in the West) helps his case. Nonetheless, Doncic’s statistical influence is greater due to his advantages in assists, rebounds, and scoring. Doncic still has a great chance to win MVP with more juice than Jokic or Gilgeous-Alexander if the Mavericks can finish strong.
Western Conference to be won by the Mavericks (+1600)
The Mavericks were eliminated from the playoffs the previous year, but they advanced to the Western Conference Finals the year before by winning the first two rounds against Rudy Gobert and the Utah Jazz and Devin Booker and the top-seeded Phoenix Suns. Now that the Suns lead the Mavericks by just one game for the fifth playoff position, Booker’s team leads the Minnesota Timberwolves in the West, and Gobert is the focal point of their defense. The Mavericks would be the top-seeded club in the play-in tournament if the season ended today. If they won that game, they would next play the Thunder, a team they recently defeated by 35 points less than two weeks ago. This season, Dallas has also triumphed over the fourth-seeded Nuggets and third-seeded Clippers.
