Prediction, Preview, and Odds
#461 Cleveland Browns vs.
#462 Houston Texans
Sunday, December 24, 2023 at 1:00pm EST
NRG Stadium, Houston
The Cleveland Browns and Houston Texans will play on Sunday at NRG Stadium. Kickoff is at 1:00 p.m. ET.
Cleveland (9-5 SU, 9-5 ATS, and 7-6-1 O/U) beat Chicago 20-17 and Houston (8-6 SU, 7-7 ATS, and 5-9 O/U) beat Tennessee 19-16.
The Browns are 2.5-point spread favorites and the game total is 40 points.
Injury Report
Browns: RB Kareem Hunt, G Wyatt Teller, OT Geron Christian, S Juan Thornhill, LB Anthony Walker Jr., DE Ogbo Okoronkwo, C Ethan Pocic, LB Jordan Kunaszyk, G Joel Bitonio, and CB Mike Ford are questionable.
Texans: DE Will Anderson Jr., S Jimmie Ward, WR John Metchie III, TE Brevin Jordan, WR Noah Brown, WR Nico Collins, QB C.J. Stroud, OT Laremy Tunsil, LB Denzel Perryman, G Shaq Mason, DYMaliek Collins, and LB Blake Cashman are questionable.
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Cleveland is stout on third down
Cleveland scores 22.1 points per game (12th) and averages 330.0 total yards (17th), including 206.3 passing yards (21st) and 123.7 rushing yards (10th). It converts 31.0 percent of its third downs (30th) and finds the end zone on 53.8 percent of its red zone trips (16th). QB Joe Flacco has given this team a lift as last week, he threw three picks, but led the Browns to the game-winning drive against the Bears.
The Browns surrender 20.6 points per game (12th) and their opponents average 261.1 total yards (1st), including 158.9 passing yards (1st) and 102.2 rushing yards (11th). They have 41 sacks and 14 interceptions this season. Cleveland’s opponents convert 28.3 percent of their third-down attempts (1st) and score touchdowns on 68.5 percent of their trips to the red zone (30th).
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Houston’s defense is tough to run on
Houston averages 21.9 points (15th) and 353.7 total yards (10th) per game, including 253.4 passing yards (5th) and 100.3 rushing yards (21st). It converts 38.8 percent of its third-down attempts (16th) and scores touchdowns on 52.1 percent of its red zone trips (21st). Stroud is out for this game which means Case Keenum will likely get the star again. WR Nico Collins (calf) is expected to return this week, though rookie DE Willie Anderson Jr. (ankle) is out.
The Texans’ defense gives up 21.1 points (15th) and 332.6 total yards (16th) per game, including 239.1 passing yards (25th) and 93.5 rushing yards (6th). They have 38 sacks and 12 interceptions. Houston’s opponents convert 38.8 percent of their third downs (18th) and score on 54.5 percent of their visits to the red zone (15th).
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Rating:
The Texans are banged up, with DE Will Anderson (ankle) and QB CJ Stroud (concussion) among the questionable players listed on the team’s lengthy injury report. If you’re wondering why the Browns are favored on the road, Stroud’s likely absence is the reason. Veteran QB Case Keenum led Houston to a 19-16 victory last weekend but had fewer than 200 passing yards in regulation, averaging just 5.4 yards per passing attempt against a poor Titans pass defense.
The Browns’ defense has been the catalyst to the team’s success this season, but the unit has not performed well on the road, surrendering an NFL-worst 30.7 PPG compared to just 13.1 PPG at home. That figures to change, though, as Cleveland’s defense is too talented to struggle so much on the road. Keenum is in for a challenge against the league’s best pass defense, as Cleveland’s pass rush is also intimidating (7th-most sacks). The Texans are banged up on the offensive line and at receiver, with Tank Dell out and Nico Collins and Noah Brown limited in practice.
Don’t be surprised if they’re in an early hole, as the Browns rank first in success rate during the first quarter, and Houston ranks 25th. Cleveland will ride that momentum to a win and cover on Sunday in Houston.
Prediction: Browns -2.5
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Rating:
Betting Trend: The under is 7-2 in the Texans’ last nine home games.
I’m placing a wager on the under at 40 in Sunday’s Browns-Texans game.
Both teams are limited offensively, but especially Houston. The Texans are going to have problems blocking the Browns’ pass rushers given their injuries and they’re banged up at receiver, too. Stroud is unlikely to play for the second straight week due to a concussion, which puts the ball in the game manager Keenum’s hands. I don’t predict more than 17 points from the home team this week.
Cleveland could also struggle to run the football against Houston’s sixth-ranked run defense. RBs Jerome Ford and Kareem Hunt are dealing with wrist and groin injuries, too. Joe Flacco has done a nice job since taking over as QB1, but he’s been far from perfect (three INTs last week). He was sacked four times against the Bears, as well. Bettors should expect a sloppy, low-scoring game between these teams this Sunday.
Prediction: Under 40
Written By Michael Briggs , “Michael Briggs”
Mike Briggs is a passionate sports fan and writer, earning his B.A. in Journalism. In 2020, he moved across the country from New Jersey to San Diego to satisfy his lifelong obsession of living near an MLB stadium. As a proud MSU basketball supporter, Mike believes he’s learned a lot watching coach Tom Izzo lead the Spartans to Big Ten titles and Final Fours regularly. He’s also well-read on the NBA, having a subscription to SLAM magazine, the famed “basketball bible,” since he was a teenager. Mike spends his free time strategizing futures bets and researching opportunities to make a few bucks on tonight’s game. You can follow Mike on Twitter @BriggsWrites for sports betting, DFS, and stock trading tips.
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