Are you curious about the most recent football trends, matchups, and injury updates? You are in our hands. Where is the public’s money this week, you ask? You are in our hands. Do you want to know who to pick for your Eliminator pool, which teams to play, or who to roster in DFS? You’re with us there, too. Here’s all the information you need to be ready for this weekend’s football games, whether you’re betting on them or not.
NFL: Update on injuries, matchups to take advantage of, Eliminator Challenge, DFS strategies, analytics edges, and action reports
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Get ready for an incredible CFP Semifinals experience.Texas, Michigan, Alabama, and Washington prepare for their College Football Playoff Semifinal matchup.
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The lines for the two College Football Playoff semifinal games held stable going into the weekend, following some minor line movement earlier in the week. As of Thursday, the Michigan Wolverines were still a consensus 2-point favorite over the Alabama Crimson Tide, with the majority of bets at sportsbooks going to the underdog Tide. According to a study released by DraftKings on Thursday, Alabama was the beneficiary of 75% of the wagers placed on the Rose Bowl point spread. Before Christmas, the point spread at ESPN BET went as high as Michigan -2.5, but at most bookmakers, it was returning to its starting figure of -1.5 or -2. “The great majority ofJoey Feazel, the chief college football trader at Caesars Sportsbook, stated in a corporate podcast that “Alabama is where the action is right now.”
The Texas Longhorns held a 4-point advantage over the Washington Huskies in the Sugar Bowl. “Since we opened, the line has remained at four,” Feazel stated. “The action is pretty split.” Feazel reported that wagering activity on the Alabama-Michigan game was three times higher at Caesars Sportsbook than it was for Washington-Texas.
The Georgia Bulldogs and Florida State Seminoles are favored to win the Orange Bowl this week after several Seminoles—including their anticipated starting quarterback—entered the transfer portal or chose not to participate in the contest. As of Thursday, Georgia, which began as a 13.5-point favorite, was -20. As of Thursday at DraftKings, about 80% of the money wagered on the game’s point spread was on Georgia.
Feazel highlighted the ReliaQuest Bowl between the Wisconsin Badgers and LSU Tigers as one of the most important choices the book had to make as it looked ahead to bowl games on Saturday and Monday. Feazel told ESPN, “I think we’re going to need Wisconsin pretty bad early on.” After Tigers quarterback Jayden Daniels opted out, the line moved from LSU -10.5 to -7, but it has now increased to -10.
ESPN Analytics’s major advantages for Seth Walder
Iowa State Cyclones vs. Memphis Tigers (+10.5): In terms of offensive efficiency, FPI says Memphis, which was rated 29th, will win by double digits over Iowa State, which was ranked 36th. The starting quarterbacks for both clubs, who are ranked 38th and 39th in QBR, ought to participate in the contest. Naturally, IowaAccording to FPI, the state’s defense is superior, but not sufficiently so to support its spread. The Cyclones are only 4.6-point favorites according to the model in Friday’s AutoZone Liberty Bowl (3:30 p.m. on ESPN/ESPN+).
Slot targets for CeeDee Lamb vs. the Lions’ defense: Let’s watch Lamb in the slot on Saturday night, where he has caught seven of his nine touchdowns this season. Here, Dallas can scheme for Lamb to attack the middle of the field versus zone coverage, while also setting him up on catch-and-run targets to win the man matchups. Lamb has logged 56 receptions out of the slot this season.
Brock Purdy vs. the Commanders’ 2-High schemes: I expect a bounce-back week for Purdy on Sunday against a Washington defense that has allowed 261.6 yards passing per game, the second most in the league. The Commanders play split-safety coverage on 51.2% of opponent drop-backs, so look for Kyle Shanahan to push the safeties deep while creating intermediate windows for Purdy. Defined, timing throws here.
Mike Clay’s advise on the Eliminator Challenge
Jacksonville Jaguars: We have a few good possibilities as we approach our last two weeks. They have the Browns against the Jets on Thursday night, but if you didn’t follow that path, there are also the Jaguars against the Panthers, the Chiefs against the Bengals, the Rams against the Giants, the Broncos against the Raiders, and maybe even the Bears against the Falcons. The Jaguars are the better option right now since the Chiefs (at Chargers) are probably going to be our best Week 18 play; the Rams are on the road, and the Broncos switched quarterbacks. Jacksonville will be the favorite at home against the Panthers, who have two wins, regardless of the quarterback situation. However, if Trevor Lawrence is injured, the Jaguars will undoubtedly be a riskier play. I’ll go along withthe AFC South leaders for the time being, but we can definitely flip if necessary.
Plays by Al Zeidenfeld for DFS
This week’s running back and tight end options are so loaded with value that it’s a cinch to build your tournament stacks around the main value plays and perhaps even afford Christian McCaffrey ($9,600). This weekend against the Bengals, who have allowed the most explosive plays per game this season, Clyde Edwards-Helaire ($5,300) offers a very obvious path to volume. Edwards-Helaire has performed well earlier this month in relief of Isiah Pacheco, who is still in concussion procedures. With Zamir White ($5,100), Devin Singletary ($5,600), and Ezekiel Elliott ($6,000) all available for $6,000 or less on DraftKings, it’s really feasible to assemble a lineup around a low-cost core based on enormous volume potential.
