This isn’t typical.
Historically, at least one Power 5 conference has eliminated itself from the College Football Playoff competition by the middle of November. According to the Allstate Playoff Predictor, at this stage in the previous season, the only conferences with teams who had at least a 33% chance of making the playoffs were the Big Ten (Ohio State and Michigan) and the SEC (Georgia and Tennessee).
There are twice as many teams in contention this year as there were last year, and all five major leagues are still fighting for four precious playoff slots.
The Pacific-12’s Washington has one loss and is unbeaten. Oregon still has a valid route. In the Big Ten, only Michigan and Ohio State had losses. Georgia, the SEC champion, is still unbeaten. Unbeatable The ACC is represented by Florida State. Furthermore, even though there are no longer any unbeaten teams in the Big 12, one-loss Texas still has the upper hand against Alabama, a team with one loss.
This is a packed field in November; how unusual?
The seven 10-0 teams are the most the sport has seen this early in the season since the Bowl Championship Series started in 1998, according to ESPN’s Stats & Information. With just three weeks until Selection Day, eight teams still have a 33% or better chance of making it to the CFP, according to the Allstate Playoff Predictor.
which is a surefire way to spark pandemonium.
When the third iteration of the College Football Playoff rankings is announced tonight, it might start as soon as then. After Georgia defeated a team ranked in the CFP top 15 for the second time in a row and Washington strengthened its resume by defeating Utah, there could be a shakeup in the top four. But it extends beyond the ranking for tonight. These six possibilities would certainly cause issues for the committee if they were to occur.
If Georgia is ranked first by the selection committee tonight and continues to be ranked first heading into the SEC championship game versus Alabama, then the likelihood of this happening could rise. The Tide would be crowned SEC champions if Alabama, with just one loss, wins the conference and hands the Bulldogs their only defeat. Georgia’s victories over Mizzou, Ole Miss, and Tennessee would guarantee them serious consideration.
It would be simpler to defend Georgia’s status as “unequivocally” one of the top four teams in the nation without a conference title, though, if Florida State fell short—either to Florida in the regular season or the ACC championship game. Texas comes next. In addition to Bama, the Pac-12 and Big Ten champions, the Longhorns might be the fourth team in this scenario. Regardless of whether they are rated below the Tide or not, it is difficult to envision the Longhorns losing if Texas runs the table and ends as the Big 12 champion with a victory over the SEC champion.
In the event that Georgia loses in the SEC title game, its best-case scenario would be for one or more of the following to occur: Florida State loses, Texas wins the Big 12, or the Pac-12 delivers a two-loss champion.
Much emphasis has been placed on the significance of the Longhorns’ double-digit regular-season victory over Alabama in Week 2, but rather than worrying about whether they both make it, take the other possibility into consideration. If someone other than Texas wins the Big 12 and Georgia defeats the Tide in the SEC title game, it might even be obvious for the committee to leave them both out.
It is also possible if Georgia wins the SEC and FSU, Washington, and the Big Ten winner are the only unbeaten teams in their respective conferences. This is because the committee ranked Texas at No. 7 and Alabama at No. 8 in its second ranking.
It doesn’t necessarily have to happen because it hasn’t. If Oregon falls short of rival Oregon State on Friday, Nov. 24, at home, but manages to defeat Washington to win the Pac-12, the Ducks should not be written off until the other Power 5 conference winners are determined.
Who will win the Big 12 if Georgia defeats Alabama, Florida State is defeated, and somebody other than Texas prevails? Georgia has won the SEC. Enter the Big Ten champion. Oregon would have a conference title to set itself apart from competitors that don’t, along with a win against Washington in the top five to exact revenge for the Huskies’ loss to them during the regular season and an excellent victory against Utah.
It can happen in the same manner that the SEC has a chance, but this conference has had enough difficulty getting one team in, let alone two.
To win the championship and conclude as the Pac-12 champion with just one loss, Oregon must overcome an undefeated Washington team. The committee would also take into account a Washington team with one loss that defeated the Pac-12 champion in the regular season and had notable victories over USC, Arizona, Utah, and Oregon State. That’s a resume that would stand up to the majority of other applicants; it would just be missing a conference title.
If the Bulldogs end up as the SEC runner-up with one defeat, that’s almost certainly a better resume than Georgia’s. The likelihood of this happening would increase if Georgia wins the SEC and avoids a two-loss record. Florida State, Alabama, and/or a two-loss team wins the Big
While significant, the head-to-head outcome is not everything. To make this happen, Alabama must win the SEC, Florida State must be the ACC champion, the Pac-12 champion must have one loss or fewer, an
Since it would require some significant shocks in the Pac-12, Big 12, and ACC, this scenario is ranked last.
Michigan and Alabama need to win their respective conferences in order for this to occur. The significance of Ohio State’s victories over Penn State and Notre Dame is identical to what it was a year prior, when the Buckeyes finished in the top four without defeating Michigan or winning their division. A two-loss team also wins the Big 12; Louisville loses to Kentucky and takes first place in the ACC, while the Pac-12’s two-loss winner similarly falls short against Georgia in the debate.
